Financial Contagion Between Crude Oil, Gold, and Equity Sectors in India During COVID

Purpose: This study examined the financial contagion between crude oil and gold prices with the equity prices of different sectors in the Indian equity market during the recent COVID crisis. Design/Methodology/Approach: Dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) GARCH model was employed to analyze the behavior of time-varying conditional correlation during the time of COVID-19. For examining the financial contagion, regression analysis was performed on the dynamic conditional correlation and the conditional volatilities of the different markets. Findings: The DCC model showed a sharp increase in correlations between markets during the COVID-19 wave. It also suggested the presence of financial contagion between the crude oil and gold markets and the different equity sectors. It also indicated that the COVID-19 effect on the conditional correlation between gold and equity sectors was temporary. In contrast, it increased the correlation between crude oil and the equity sectors. Practical Implications: The findings of this study have implications for portfolio diversification methods because higher correlations lower the benefits of diversification. Originality: This study examined the financial contagion during COVID-19 from crude oil and gold to equity sectors. Not all sectors react in the same way to changes in the prices of these commodities, and some may witness less impact compared to others during the crisis period, which makes it interesting for the study. © 2023, Associated Management Consultants Pvt. Ltd.. All rights reserved.

An investigation of financial contagion between cryptocurrency and equity markets: Evidence from developed and emerging markets

The present study conducts a dynamic conditional cross-correlation and time–frequency correlation analyses between cryptocurrency and equity markets in both advanced and emerging economies. The purpose of the study is twofold. First, the study investigates the presence of the pure (narrow) form of financial contagion between cryptocurrency and stock markets in both advanced and emerging economies, during the black swan event of the COVID-19 crisis. Second, the study examines the hedging and safe-haven properties of cryptocurrencies against equity markets, before and during periods of financial upheaval triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Two econometric models are used: (1) the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) GARCH and (2) the wavelet analysis models. Using the DCC GARCH model, the study found the evidence of high conditional correlations between cryptocurrency and equity markets. The high conditional correlation was mostly detected in periods of financial turmoil corresponding to the first quarter and the second quarter of 2020. The increase in conditional correlation during periods of financial upheaval (compared to a tranquil period) indicates the presence of the pure form of financial contagion. The wavelet cross-correlation analysis showed the evidence of positive cross-correlation between the Bitcoin and the equity markets during period of financial turmoil. The cross-correlation was identified in both short and long (coarse) scales. In short scales, the equity markets lead the cryptocurrency market, while the cryptocurrency market leads equity markets in coarse scales. The findings of the present study revealed that the degree of interdependence between cryptocurrency and equity markets has substantially increased during the COVID-19 period, and this has negated the safe-haven and hedging benefits of cryptocurrencies over equity markets. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Safe havens in Islamic financial markets: COVID-19 versus GFC

Using a bivariate dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, this study compares the safe-haven properties of various assets against the major Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock indexes during two periods of financial turmoil, the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Sovereign bonds offered the highest hedging benefits under both crises. The traditional safe assets, gold and silver, which were reasonably productive under the GFC, have been less so during the pandemic. The Japanese yen emerged as a very safe choice for investors holding GCC stock indexes. Both sector indexes and stock indexes failed to safeguard investors most of the time during each crisis.

Examining contagion effects between global crude oil prices and the Southeast Asian stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic

Many previous studies identify the contagion effect among various types of assets, defined as the increase in correlation of these assets during a financial or economic crisis. During the COVID-19 outbreak, a historic fall in global fuel demand and oil prices has been witnessed. Because crude oil has a strategic position among the export products of the Southeast Asian economies, even a tiny global oil price change leads to a plunge in these stock markets. This study addresses the spillovers of the volatility between the West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices and stock indices across six ASEAN emerging economies. Besides, the study examines whether a contagion connecting the global energy prices and these stock markets exists during the coronavirus pandemic. The empirical results are acquired by applying the Bayesian test for equality of means on the dynamic conditional correlations computed from DCC-GARCH models. The findings present positive volatility transmission from crude oil prices toward these emerging equity markets. During the health crisis, co-movements intensify, indicating the occurrence of contagion effects. The empirical results provide valid implications for policymakers and international investors because a precise volatility forecast is vital for managing portfolio risk. © Mien Thi Ngoc Nguyen, 2023.

Risk hedging properties of infrastructure: a quantile regression approach

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the hedge, diversifier and safe haven properties of the global listed infrastructure sector and subsector indices against two traditional asset classes, stocks and bonds, and four alternative asset classes, including commodities, real estate, private equity and hedge funds during extreme negative stock market movements.Design/methodology/approachUsing dynamic conditional correlation and quantile regression, the authors analyze a data set of 12 indices comprising listed infrastructure and traditional asset classes from 2010 to 2019.FindingsOverall, the findings indicate that listed infrastructure acts as an effective diversifier but not as a strong safe haven or hedge when considered in a multiasset context. With minor exceptions, listed infrastructure cannot be concluded as a safe haven against other asset classes under investigation.Practical implicationsThe present study has implications for institutional investors looking to incorporate infrastructure in their multiasset portfolios for increased portfolio diversification benefits.Originality/valueDespite the increased influence of infrastructure as an asset class, to the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the hedge, safe haven and diversifying properties of infrastructure in a multi-asset context.

Dynamic relationship between green bonds and major financial asset markets from the perspective of climate change

In recent years, changes in the climate environment have caused a considerable impact on the economy and finance, especially after the signing of the Paris Agreement decided to prevent the further increase in the earth's temperature and smoothly transformed into a low-carbon society, various markets have been affected to varying degrees, and at the same time, green bonds as an emerging environmental protection tool have sprung up and become the focus of many investors and researchers. The emergence and rise of eco-friendly investment opportunities such as green bonds is bound to have an impact on other markets, but little research has been done on their dynamic correlation with the U.S. stock market, crude oil and gold markets, especially in our current period of COVID-19 tensions, it is necessary to explore the dynamics between markets and the risk aversion of green bonds to climate change. In this paper, we study the dynamic correlation between three green investment vehicles (S&P Green Bond, China Green Bond, and Climate Bond) and three major markets, and explore whether the linkage between each market will be affected by economic risks and climate change risks by adding climate risk proxy indicators and economic policy uncertainties. This is not only of guiding significance for investors who are eco-friendly to judge the effectiveness of asset allocation and hedging in investment decisions, but also has certain reference for policymakers and market participants who want to achieve green investment, which will help the market to maintain a stable and smooth transition to a low-carbon economy in the event of pressure.

Risk co-movements and portfolio strategies between energy, gold and BRICS markets

This study applies the parametric and nonparametric approach to examine risk comovement between energy, gold, and BRICS equity markets. Our analysis indicates that the risk comovement between these markets varies across financial crisis events. Crude oil and Russian stocks are substantially connected throughout all sub-sample periods, while gold shows a negative relationship with China and Indian stock markets. Moreover, the short-term risk transmission between the stock markets and commodity markets of China, Brazil, Russia, and India is stronger than the gold and oil markets of South Africa during the financial crises. Chinese stock market returns are higher in connectedness than other emerging markets. Further, crude oil and BRICS indices can be utilized as portfolio diversification assets to offset risks, especially during COVID-19. In addition, China and Russia have greater flexibility regarding hedging efficiency for crude oil in crises. Finally, this study offers policymakers insights into how to improve BRICS business convergence among financial and commodity markets to attract domestic and international investments while avoiding the risk of contagion. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd

Debt default, financial risk transmission and governance from the perspective of supply chain network.

The stock risk spillovers of 31 associated enterprises of Evergrande supply chain in China were measured with DCC-GARCH and CoVaR model, and high, moderate and low risk overflow networks in four periods were constructed, finally the overall metrics and dynamic evolution of risk spillover network were explored. The results showed that: With COVID-19 under control in China, the risk spillover of Evergrande supply chain associated enterprises continues to diverge, with the quantity and scope of high risk declining and moderate and low risk rising; The infection scope of high risk spillover has narrowed, from indirect to direct infection; Evergrande subsidiaries play obvious bridge roles in moderate and low risk networks, have strong control over the risk spread; Commercial banks suffer and trigger more risk spillovers, a number of risk spillover groups with commercial banks as cores formed in high and moderate risk networks.

Did the policy responses influence credit and business cycle co-movement during the COVID-19 crisis? Evidence from Indonesia.

This paper examines the responses of credit and business cycle to various policy actions of the Government of Indonesia during the COVID-19 crisis. Specifically, the paper addresses two key questions (1) How do the credit and business cycle behave during the COVID-19 crisis in Indonesia? (2) Do the central bank and government policy responses effectively stabilize the credit and business cycle? Using the concordance Index and DCC-GARCH methodology, we found that the COVID-19 crisis increased Indonesia's credit and business cycle co-movements. Similarly, using the mixed data sampling regression technique, our findings suggest fiscal policy measures and government support help the business cycle revival during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the monetary policy transmission is weak during the pandemic.

Co-movement between Covid-19 and G20 stock market returns: A time and frequency analysis.

In our study, we employ DCC-GARCH and Wavelet coherence analysis to examine the co-movement between global covid-19 indicators (cases, recoveries and deaths) and stock returns of main equity markets in G20 countries using daily data spanning between February 2, 2020 and August 28, 2021. Our empirical results show that the co-movement between COVID-19 and G20 stock returns has been switching between negative and positive correlations across the entire time window. The wavelet coherence analysis further reveal that negative (positive) co-movements predominantly exist as lower (higher frequencies) for cases and deaths and are more mixed for recoveries. The findings also show that the short-frequency components correspond to periods around the initial announcement of the initial pandemic and also around the announced of subsequent variants of the COVID-19 virus. Policy and market implications from our study are also discussed.

COVID-19 and the forward-looking stock-bond return relationship

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused stock market crashes and collapse of economic activities in many countries. As a result, many investors changed their stock and bond market expectations. This study investigates whether the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases influences the forward-looking stock-bond correlations. We apply a quantile approach that is beneficial to explore non-linear relationships between the forward-looking stock-bond return correlations and the COVID-19 cases. The correlations are estimated using the DCC-GARCH model for 21 financial markets from three regions (North American, Asia-Pacific, and Europe). We present empirical evidence that there are heterogeneous responses across regions and countries. Specifically, the negative stock-bond correlations weaken as the number of COVID-19 cases in the regions of North America (the U.S. and Canada) and Asia-Pacific (Australia and Japan) increases. Our results suggest that the number of COVID-19 cases is not important. Investors sell risky stocks and buy safe Treasury bonds at the beginning of the pandemic, while they adjust their portfolios risk levels when they obtain more information. Our result also highlights that this pattern is not observed in European countries.

The Impact of Covid-19 on Oil Market Returns: Has Market Efficiency Being Violated?

This study examines the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the efficiency of oil markets from February 2nd, 2020 to August 4th, 2021. By relying on dynamic conditional correlation GARCH and Wavelet coherence techniques, we able to provide correlations between the variables across time and frequency domains. Our empirical findings point to significant yet weak correlations between COVID-19 recovery/death rates for the time period extending from early February to early May even though we observe strong correlations between WTI prices and COVID-19 health statistics in mid-April. Moreover, during this identified time period, the length of frequency cycles within the correlations decreases from 16 days to 8 days. Altogether, these findings imply that oil markets were inefficient between February and early May and have since turned market efficient for the remaining duration of the pandemic. © 2023, Econjournals. All rights reserved.

Impact of the Global Fear Index (COVID-19 Panic) on the S&P Global Indices Associated with Natural Resources, Agribusiness, Energy, Metals, and Mining: Granger Causality and Shannon and Rényi Transfer Entropy.

The Global Fear Index (GFI) is a measure of fear/panic based on the number of people infected and deaths due to COVID-19. This paper aims to examine the interconnection or interdependencies between the GFI and a set of global indexes related to the financial and economic activities associated with natural resources, raw materials, agribusiness, energy, metals, and mining, such as: the S&P Global Resource Index, the S&P Global Agribusiness Equity Index, the S&P Global Metals and Mining Index, and the S&P Global 1200 Energy Index. To this end, we first apply several common tests: Wald exponential, Wald mean, Nyblom, and Quandt Likelihood Ratio. Subsequently, we apply Granger causality using a DCC-GARCH model. Data for the global indices are daily from 3 February 2020 to 29 October 2021. The empirical results obtained show that the volatility of the GFI Granger causes the volatility of the other global indices, except for the Global Resource Index. Moreover, by considering heteroskedasticity and idiosyncratic shocks, we show that the GFI can be used to predict the co-movement of the time series of all the global indices. Additionally, we quantify the causal interdependencies between the GFI and each of the S&P global indices using Shannon and Rényi transfer entropy flow, which is comparable to Granger causality, to confirm directionality more robustly The main conclusion of this research is that financial and economic activity related to natural resources, raw materials, agribusiness, energy, metals, and mining were affected by the fear/panic caused by COVID-19 cases and deaths.

The impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict (2022) on volatility connectedness between the Egyptian stock market sectors: evidence from the DCC-GARCH-CONNECTEDNESS approach

Purpose>This study investigates the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war (2022) on the volatility connectedness between Egyptian stock market sectors.Design/methodology/approach>This study employs the newest dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-CONNECTEDNESS approach to examine volatility connectedness in a sample of ten sectors in the Egyptian stock market, namely banks, education, food, healthcare, industry, information technology, real estate, resources, transportation and travel, ranging from February 1, 2019 to May 31, 2022.Findings>The findings show that connectedness among the Egyptian stock market sectors varies depending on the time. The average dynamic connectedness measure among sectors in Egypt is 73.24%. This average was 85.63% during the Russia–Ukraine War (2022). The author also shows that the transportation sector is the most significant net transmitter of volatility in the remaining sectors during the Russia–Ukraine War (2022).Practical implications>This study intends for policymakers to examine the co-movements, market variations and volatility spillover of stock markets, particularly during crises. Furthermore, the results help investors gain insight into diversifying the investors' portfolio assets to optimize profits.Originality/value>To the best of the authors' knowledge, no study has investigated the implications of the war between Russia and Ukraine (2022) on sectoral interconnectedness within the stock markets in any country and discussion and empirical evidence from African countries are lacking. This study fills this gap in the literature. Additionally, the author uses the newest approach, the DCC-GARCH-CONNECTEDNESS approach, to describe the time-varying volatility spillover between economic sectors in Egypt.

Contagion Risk in Equity Markets During Financial Crises and COVID-19: A Comparison of Developed and Emerging Markets

This study compared the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic on financial market contagion between developed and emerging markets. A DCC-GARCH model was employed to test the contagion effects of developed and emerging markets using weekly returns for the S&P 500 (US), FTSE-100 (UK), ASX 200 (AUS), IBOVESPA (BRA), BSE SENSEX (IND) and BVM IPC (MEX). The results show that there was a persuasive case made for the integration of markets for efficient financial systems. A crisis occurring in one market holds significant repercussions for any of the connected markets. The findings show that the COVID-19 pandemic affected all the markets more severely than the GFC and contagion effects were more pronounced in emerging markets than in developed markets during the GFC and the pandemic. Consequently, policymakers in emerging markets should implement policies that reduce external vulnerabilities and improve their markets' stability to reduce the impact of contagion risk.

Re-evaluating the hedge and safe-haven properties of Islamic indexes, gold and Bitcoin: evidence from DCC–GARCH and quantile models

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate the hedge, safe-haven and diversifier properties of Islamic indexes, Bitcoin and gold for ten of the most affected countries by the coronavirus, which are the USA, Brazil, the UK, Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Russia, China and Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach: This research uses the Ratner and Chiu (2013) methodology based on the dynamic conditional correlation models to improve Baur and McDermott (2010). The authors adopt a careful investigation of the features of a diversifier, hedge and safe haven using the dynamic conditional correlation–GARCH and quantile regression models. Findings: Empirical results indicate that Islamic indexes are not considered as hedge assets for the conventional market for all studied countries during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis period. However, gold works as a strong hedge in all countries, except for Brazil and Malaysia. Bitcoin is a strong hedge in the USA and a strong hedge and safe haven in China. Practical implications: International investors in China and the US stock markets should replace Islamic ‎indexes with Bitcoin in their conventional portfolio of securities during the pandemic. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper that re-evaluates the hedge, safe-haven and diversifier properties of Islamic indexes, Bitcoin and gold for ten of the most affected countries by the coronavirus. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Is bitcoin a diversifier, hedge or safe haven for traditional and alternate asset classes?

Given the skyrocketing returns earned by bitcoin, it has received widespread attention as an investment asset. The shocks experienced by stock and bond markets over time and especially during the COVID-19 pandemic has led to an evaluation of bitcoin as a wealth protection asset, a role that gold has played until now. The current paper tests the hedging and safe haven properties of bitcoin in a broad portfolio of both developed and emerging markets stocks, bonds and real estate over a period of 10 years and during COVID-19 pandemic. Using a DCC-GARCH method, the study finds weak hedge and safe haven benefits of bitcoin. The results of the study establish that there is still a long way to go before bitcoin displays a strong safe haven behavior. However, there is a need for portfolio managers to become more cognizant about bitcoin given its potential to protect their portfolios.

Analyzing the risk spillovers of international crude oil on China's corn and biofuel ethanol markets: A transition toward green economy and environmental sustainability

This study aims to analyze the risk spillover effects between the global crude oil market and the biofuel ethanol and corn markets in China, employing a DCC-GARCH-Copula-CoVaR model and basing the weekly price data from 2012 to 2021. The empirical results revealed that there were dynamic conditional correlations among international crude oil, China's biofuel ethanol, and corn markets. Following the COVID-19 outbreak, the CoVaR and Delta CoVaR changed, which caused a sharp increase in the mean values and volatility. Additionally, China's biofuel ethanol market is more vulnerable to the risk spillovers from the international crude oil market than China's corn market. However, China's markets do not appear to have obvious risk spillover effects on the global market. The implications of the results are discussed in financial market supervision, including the risk management and portfolio adjustment.

Green FinTech: sustainability of Bitcoin.

The COVID-19 pandemic has corroborated environmental degradation and climate change as two important problems of the twenty-first century. To turn environmental challenges into opportunities, we need environmentally friendly, green financial technologies. This article aims to shed light on the studies within this field, by building a bridge between financial technology (FinTech) and cryptocurrencies. A cashless society is expected to be fostered as digital currencies become more widespread, which will result in the eventual replacement of notes and coins. When considered from this point of view, cryptocurrencies could be regarded as environmentally friendly. On the other hand, the large amount of energy consumed in the mining process of cryptocurrencies questions their environmental friendliness. Therefore, analyzing whether cryptocurrencies are environmentally friendly or not conducted in a holistic approach.

Modeling Covid-19 contagious effect between asset markets and commodity futures in India

For the purpose of optimizing an investment portfolio in the Indian market, this research provides an understanding of the connectedness, volatility transmission and investment scenario between different pairs of commodity futures and assets, observing the impact of Covid-19. To do that, we derived a daily dataset spanning from 2016 to 2021 bifurcated into two panels comprising the pre & post-Covid-19 onset periods. First, we employed wavelet coherence plots to check the directional connectedness between asset and commodity futures. The DCC-GARCH model was then applied on both the data panels to investigate and compare volatility transmission. Hedge ratios and optimum portfolio weights have been estimated to demonstrate a comparative investment scenario. We observe a significant long-term volatility transmission from the asset markets to commodity futures for both the onset panel. Commodity futures provide effective hedging and diversification efficiency against the asset markets. DCC, hedge ratio and optimum portfolio weights show the heterogeneous patterns of investment for pre & post-Covid-19 period. Gold, bond, bullion futures and exchange rates are recognized as a gauge of the economy in crisis. This work will provide significant insight to readers about portfolio construction and required changes in portfolio weights in normal and crisis market conditions.